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The S&P 500 rose three percent on Wednesday and then promptly fell 3.5 percent on Thursday. It’s not as if anything unexpected happened at the FOMC meeting. The prevailing wisdom was that the Fed would raise rates by 0.5 percent, and that’s what they did. The ...
Last week's spike and crash has been misinterpreted. The move was due to technical factors and not some deeper meaning. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I make a case for the market fully discounting the interest rate adjustment. It's likely Powell's efforts will slow the econom...
This updated article looks at the potential impact of the newly released QT schedule and subsequent market effects of four quantitative easing programs. On March 9th, 2022 the Federal Reserve conducted their final open market purchase effectively ending the Covid QE 4 program started ...
We began to prepare for the current pullback at the end of 2021. The current environment has turned bearish, where even former bulls are now bearish. I believe we will be bottoming soon, and starting our next bullish phase to 5500SPX. For further details see: Sentiment S...
A very brief post-Fed meeting bounce only emboldened the bears as volatility persists. Central banks remain steadfast in tightening financial conditions. The 2022 bond bloodbath continues as economic data suggests threats to growth. For further details see: Weekly S&...
According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. On a raw basis, this April was middle of the pack compared to the last 10 years. On an adjusted basis, this is the strongest April over the same time span...
The nature of markets is that they are never quite settled, as investors recalibrate expectations constantly and reset prices. Consumer expectations of inflation reached 5.40% in March 2022, hitting levels not seen since the early 1980s. The inflation genie is out of the bottle, a...
The week ahead is important because it may be the first signs that may be peak inflation is at hand. With the current account report, Japan also reports portfolio capital flows. The MOF publishes weekly figures, but the monthly figures include a country breakdown. China's trade ba...
Thursday the major averages had their worst day since 2020. It was a full-fledged liquidation, nothing was spared. Friday the selloff continued with energy in the green. As Shakespeare would say, the worm has turned. The Fed has turned from dovish to bearish. Further, inflation is out...
It appears as if most reactions to today’s April 2022 payroll were quite positive, maybe enthusiastic when they should not have been. The past couple of months for the Establishment Survey have, predictably, fallen right within that statistically-enforced range, though at the l...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...