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US small business optimism held steady in April after three consecutive falls. Nonetheless, businesses retain the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers, and this will keep inflation sticky. Ongoing supply chain issues and rising fuel costs mean 2% inflation is a distan...
What is sell in May and go away? What is different between May 1950 and May 2022? Flagging growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates point to down a market. For further details see: Sell In May And Go Away? Yes This Year, No Last 6 Years
Bear markets tend to last much less time than bull markets. Since the stock market is the major fuel for the economy, when stocks get clobbered for a long enough period, the economy follows. Higher interest rates could reduce the contribution to US GDP by as much as nearly 30%. ...
We slightly reduce risk on a worsening macro outlook. We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets. The Fed raised rates by 0.5% last week - the largest increase since 2000 - and signaled similar rises ahead. Long-term yields shot up a...
There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points. A rising currency is presumably negative for the export sector and positive for domestic purchasing power. On a sector basis, there were several winners last week wit...
While the S&P 500/SPX is still officially in correction territory, many market-leading stocks are in a deep bear market. High inflation, Fed tightening, and other unfavorable fundamental factors should continue pressuring economic growth. Moreover, decreasing corporate profits...
To avoid losses and participate in “bull markets”, one needs to expect some losses. However, the key is to not lose too much capital, so gains are multiplied. The strategy I use builds up reserves when the prices of what my clients and I own are high compared to perceive...
The market is in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears with very different outlook. One side sees a near-complete correction and soft landing, while the other a bear market and recession. I think last week’s jobs report indicates no recession on the horizon. Strong first...
The Fed is trying to tame inflation without causing a recession. Historically, tightening monetary policy into a period of economic deceleration doesn't go over well. Supply-side constraints, especially in the commodity sector, are set to persist. For further details see: ...
The S&P 500 rose three percent on Wednesday and then promptly fell 3.5 percent on Thursday. It’s not as if anything unexpected happened at the FOMC meeting. The prevailing wisdom was that the Fed would raise rates by 0.5 percent, and that’s what they did. The ...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...