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Flattening July saw the recovery stall out in many ways. The unemployment insurance numbers tell the weekly story: Like everything else, the normally highly reliable UI tables have gone all wonky on us. The difficulty states are having with their ancient IT systems has been well-documented...
I have said since early May, after the initial stock market rally from the March bottoms, that we had re-entered a speculative phase in the stock market. The previous speculative phase occurred late last year and early this year. I have not received much push back on the concept of this be...
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the fragility of the US economy. For forty years, most US households (the bottom 90%) have endured stagnant wages, rising debt loads and generalized economic insecurity. More than 50% of all US households live paycheck to paycheck and the majority are unable ...
This ain't my first rodeo, and it probably isn't yours either. However, I have an overabundance of experience, marked by my 46 years on Wall Street. I haven't seen everything, but I have seen a lot of it. I thought I would take some time today, therefore, to share with you what I have learned ...
Originally published August 11 Executive Summary: Both the Early Warning board and my favorite stochastic indicators suggest that stocks are overbought. As such, one can argue that "the table is set" for some downside action. However, I will opine that we've got a "good overbought" con...
Note: The previous monthly update can be seen in the July 8 article titled " The Probability Of A U.S. Recession - July 2020 . " While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “ Recession Declared For The United States By The N...
The biggest mistake novice and millennial investors are making is investing based on headlines and hype and not understanding the real performance of the business they’re buying a piece of, Robert Leonard, VP of Growth and Innovation at The Investor’s Podcast Network, told...
Construction Spending Spending on construction projects fell for a fourth month in a row in June, declining 0.7% compared to the 1.3% expected increase. Both residential (-1.5%) and public construction (-0.7%) declined, which leaves overall construction flat over the past year. PMI and...
Look at this. This is a stock's price. Now look at it another way. This is not just a stock's price. It is, borrowing from the legendary John Bogle, a "giant distraction to the business of investing." Long-term investment returns are created by how businesses perform, but most investors ma...
A number of encouraging economic indicators suggest that the US is recovering from the coronavirus recession that crushed output in the second quarter. But deciding if a bounce off a very deep bottom is laying the foundation for a robust, sustained recovery remains unclear. There are still too...