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I review a "macro" piece that I wrote on SA in early February. I consider the fate of observations and predictions from that effort. I evaluate how various geopolitical and economic components in the overall picture have changed since. I close with my view of how the markets m...
Global economic growth slowed to a crawl in July, according to the latest PMI survey data, led by the developed world falling into contraction for the first time in two years. Emerging market growth as a whole consequently remained broadly resilient at one of the fastest rates seen ov...
The equity-GDP measure at the end of 2021 was at a record high – higher even than the 1929 peak. The decline in the S&P 500 has brought the equity-GDP down to a more attractive level. The 1920s experienced a tremendous increase in productivity. Preparing for a 2020s...
July US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 47.3%, down from the final June estimate of 52.7 and in contraction territory. Tightening financial conditions mean the financial services sector is leading the downturn, with a further steep rise in in...
The services new orders index rose to 59.9 percent from 55.6 percent in June, an increase of 4.3 percentage points. The services employment index improved in July but remained below the neutral 50 level, coming in at 49.1 percent, up from 47.4 percent in June. Supplier deliveries,...
Reborn Coffee has filed proposed terms for a $6 million IPO. The firm operates a small chain of coffee shops in California. REBN is a tiny company with high operating losses that is asking investors to pay a very high price for its shares at IPO. I'm on Hold for the REBN IPO d...
US economic growth is slipping, and a new recession may be near. If the current expansion ends at some point in the near future (assuming it’s still alive), the recovery in personal income will be the weakest by far among business cycles since 1970. The sluggish bounce for hous...
The market is looking for excuses to pull back after the July rebound. The JOLTS report was encouraging on the inflation front. Earnings estimates are coming down for the third quarter, which is not unusual. Investors are still positioned extremely bearish, which should be fue...
The Bitcoin variety, I don't think it will live. I think, we have two significant government agencies which will make sure it's going to die. At the beginning of this year, a lot of people spoke about the Fed put as something that was going to support markets, equity markets, obviousl...
Global equity markets went into a protective crouch last quarter, and factor performance followed suit. The collapse in Consumer Discretionary and/or Technology stocks was a dominant driver of global factor performance in Q2. The Quality premium versus Value has returned to its lo...
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