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The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double market expectations. Equity market futures dropped, and Treasury rates spiked following the hot NFP data. Next week's CPI will be ever more important in the wake of July's employment data as the Fed may be forced into m...
This morning's employment report for July showed a 528K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was well above the Investing.com forecast of 250K jobs added. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the employment-population was range-bound between 58.2% and 60.6%. The employment-populatio...
Given the weight of the evidence from the past decade of market performance, it makes sense that stocks should perform better if the Fed pivots from monetary tightening. The stock market continues to perform when the Fed is lifting interest rates. What is clear is that the time to...
If the economic data comes in too hot, investors will worry about more aggressive tightening by the Fed. If the economic data comes in too cold, investors will worry about recession. The strength in stocks combined with the inverted yield curve is sending a mixed message. Toda...
Economic data just released last week showed the economy contracting by -0.9% in the 2nd quarter after declining -1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. There are plenty of challenging forces surrounding us, including an overhanging recession, that could push you into a depression. ...
The great majority of reporting companies have met or surpassed their expected financial results. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 has gained about 500 points or 14% from its low in June. The NASDAQ has recovered by about 17%. Increases in interest rates by the major centra...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 6,000 for the week ending July 30th, coming in at 260,000. Weekly initial claims data continue to suggest a tight labor market, though the recent sustained upward trend indicates some easing. Initial claims remain at a v...
Investor sentiment has improved with the weekly survey from the AAII showing over 30% of respondents reporting as bullish. Bearish sentiment is a similar story in hitting the lowest level since the first week of June as it has fallen back below 40%. In spite of those further impro...
CW Petroleum has filed proposed terms for a $15 million U.S. IPO uplisting to Nasdaq. The company provides gas blending and distribution services in the southern U.S. region. CWPE's topline revenue has plateaued at a low level, the company operates in a low margin business and the...
I review a "macro" piece that I wrote on SA in early February. I consider the fate of observations and predictions from that effort. I evaluate how various geopolitical and economic components in the overall picture have changed since. I close with my view of how the markets m...
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