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Summary 2022 was a disappointing year for both stock and bond investors. The real (inflation-adjusted) 25% loss in stocks is in the bottom decile. The real 20.3 bond loss is the worst in the past 97 years, and greater losses could lie ahead. The following 2 histograms and ...
Summary The forward 4-quarter estimate fell to $222.91 this week from $223.31 last week. The P/E on the forward estimate today is 17.22x, up a little from 9/30/22’s 15.6x. There is NO reason for S&P 500 corporate guidance to be anything but subdued, and probably straight ...
Summary 2022 ends on a sour note with an across-the-board December selloff. The year is over, but the macro scene still looks challenging. If an investor has learned nothing else, it's obvious trying to fight the Fed is a losing proposition. "Anything worth doing is wo...
Summary The Bank of Japan shocked the market by increasing the band on their Yield Curve Control policy. The policy change was necessary because the BOJ has maintained an accommodative monetary policy despite surging inflation and a weakening yen. The policy change has not had the d...
Summary Bullish sentiment actually rebounded up to 26.5% after spending four straight weeks below 25%. Bearish sentiment fell from a recent high of 52.3% down to 47.6%. The share of respondents reporting neutral sentiment was also lower this week falling for the fourth week in a row...
Summary The second half of 2022 was historic for the US housing market. Transaction volumes froze and prices started to decline. A review of the 2022 housing market and what to expect in 2023. The first half of 2023 will look like the second half of 2022. Slow/declining hous...
Summary Initial jobless claims have not been of particular interest recently as the weekly indicator has seen choppy week-to-week moves that have yet to set any major new high or low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims tend to drift higher at the end of the year and into the new...
Summary Seeking Alpha have asked contributors to make a forecast of S&P 500 index level at end of 2023. The basis of forecasting is fairly prescriptive, requiring an estimate of S&P 500 average multiple applied to an estimate of S&P 500 average earnings, to arrive at market ...
Summary Although the S&P 500 gapped up at the open, it has traded lower throughout the morning. The final week of the year has not been an overwhelmingly positive period for equities. This is also typically the quietest period of the year. Since 1994, average volume in the final...
Summary Reserve balances have fallen sharply over the past week. With the reverse repo facility likely to see a big surge this week, reserve balances could drop further. Falling liquidity and rising rates could push stocks sharply lower. If you have been looking for that S...