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2023-03-08 22:05:00 ET Summary Over the past couple of sessions as the market has awaited Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, the S&P 500 has not seen particularly large gaps at the open. The moves in the past couple of sessions have essentially been the opposite of what is h...
2023-03-07 22:53:00 ET Summary Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill over the next couple of days will be the main focus of the market. Hawkish commentary generally tends to be received poorly by the market with the S&P falling an average of 7.5 bps on those days...
2023-03-07 03:47:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 recovered a large portion of the ground in lost in the trading week ending on 3 March 2023. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued to project three consecutive quarter-point rate hikes at the Fed's upcoming 22 March, 3 May and 14 Jun...
2023-03-06 04:15:00 ET Summary The Q4 2023 S&P 500 EPS growth is still reflecting 10% y.y, and it has not been revised down even though Q1 and Q2 ’23 EPS estimates continue to be revised lower. The Friday, March 10th, 2023 nonfarm payroll report is expecting +210,000 ...
Summary Stronger economic indicators released over the past month suggest that the economy started the year off solidly with no recession in the near term. After a couple of weak months, consumer spending jumped for January. Continued modestly above-trend economic growth is occurrin...
Summary The beginning of the year always offers a chance to catch up with a broad range of clients who are in the mode of thinking about the big picture outlook: pension funds, insurers, consultants and sovereign wealth funds across Australia, Asia, Europe and North America. This note r...
Summary Fourth-quarter results showed consumers balked at higher prices. Together, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft command roughly three-quarters of the cloud market and we find the soft results for all three to be a potential canary in the coal mine for the economy. We expect the foc...
Summary For the month of February, the S&P 500 Total Return Index ended down -2.4%. What disrupted the January rally? During the month, we received some affirming data that the economy may be on firmer footing than economists previously thought. But markets are worried that such str...
Summary The most attractive sectors are energy, real estate and materials. The worst-looking ones are industrials, communication services and consumer staples. The deterioration of free cash flow across S&P 500 companies is concerning. About SPLG This monthly a...
Summary The good news is that rising inflation does not necessarily mean the end of the bull market. The S&P 500 is currently valued at nearly 19x 2023 earnings. Stocks can go higher but in near-term, particularly when it comes to lower quality, volatile names. By Ru...