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2024-07-10 06:25:00 ET Summary Global elections in 2024 are turning out to have more plot twists than a summer blockbuster. While markets appear to be focusing largely on fiscal policy and taxes, the proposed new trade policies are massive in their scope. It is extremely diffi...
2024-07-10 03:50:00 ET Summary In our opinion, it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated. We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) divided by the US$ gold price) to define booms...
2024-07-10 03:15:00 ET Summary Fed Chair Powell’s testimony didn’t give away much and markets continue to price in around a 75% probability for a September cut. French spreads remain elevated, but issuers are returning to EUR primary markets as event risks are abatin...
2024-07-09 21:06:38 ET Summary Economist, Hyman Minsky, theorized financial bubbles are caused by new technology, easy credit, amnesia about past bubbles, and abandonment of traditional stock valuation methods. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policies since 2008 have inflate...
2024-07-09 14:20:00 ET Summary With a move up to 91.5 in June, the Small Business Optimism Index has now risen in each of the past three months and is at the highest level of 2024. Even with recent improvements, the headline number still sits in the bottom 13% of its historical ra...
2024-07-09 13:36:57 ET Summary June inflation is expected to see a modest uptick from May, with headline CPI increasing by 0.1% m/m and core CPI by 0.2% m/m. Expectations for CPI swaps pricing in a 0.0% m/m change in headline CPI for June and a 3.1% y/y increase. Auto insuranc...
2024-07-09 12:30:03 ET More on the markets and the economy Fed needs more good inflation data to cut rates: Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress Nasdaq, S&P reach for fresh records as Powell sees inflation moving toward target Stocks with high AI exposure an...
2024-07-09 11:00:00 ET Summary Recession risk has risen, but it’s still premature to confidently declare that a downturn has started. Conditions could deteriorate in the weeks ahead, but for the moment, slow/sluggish growth appears to be the odds-on favorite for the near-te...
2024-07-09 10:30:00 ET Summary Total construction spending rises to a new record with Residential, Public and Manufacturing posting higher levels while Power was lower. Spending on Manufacturing facilities has risen to 185% of August 2021, the sharpest rise in this series. The...
2024-07-09 09:30:00 ET Summary It has been surprising to look back since the start of 2024. Most Wall Street pros were conservative and projected we might see a 10-15% total return for all of 2024. Retail investors have been putting their investable assets into the market, with re...
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2024-06-03 04:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-14 06:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 12:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...