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With so much negativity baked in, it may have been inevitable that markets would rebound. The strong U.S. jobs numbers highlight the challenges in reading the economy. As the Fed hikes rates, it's not just slowing the economy, it's building back its credibility. ...
The debate whether the United States is in a recession or not highlights one of the problems with the ways that economists treat yield curve slopes: as a recession prediction indicator that apparently pops out of somewhere. The duration of a 10-year Treasury is longer than that of a 2...
The fiscal policies implemented post the pandemic-driven economic shutdown created a surge in demand that created an unprecedented surge in corporate earnings. When stocks deviate from the underlying economy, the eventual resolution is lower stock prices. The deviation from long-t...
It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...
Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...
We prefer investment grade credit over equities right now. Our reasoning: valuations, strong balance sheets, low supply and moderate refinancing risks. U.S. data last week showed strong job creation but still low labor participation. Stocks lost steam and bond yields spiked as markets...
Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...
Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. The rising rate, rising dollar environment is intact. The 10 year Treasury rate is in a short-term downtrend but ...
The market is ignoring the looming impact the recession and receding inflation will have on corporate earnings. We are back in positive gamma. Positive gamma in the options market brings less-volatile markets which tend to trend upwards. The bulls have the ball for now, but they a...
Far from moderating, new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that inflation picked up in June. Core PCEPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and is thought to be a better indicator of future PCEPI inflation, also picked up. The change in policy can be seen...
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2024-03-30 08:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-10 03:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-05 16:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...