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PIMCO’s baseline outlook for the cyclical horizon has the global economy continuing its uneven recovery before shifting to a more moderate pace of above-trend growth in 2022. With the pandemic receding across much of the world, policy support has also likely peaked and will tur...
There might be some more to think about regarding interest rate sensitivity and local supply constraints. Systematically, where rents are higher, gross yields are lower. And, where rents are low, yields seem to remain relatively stable over time. The relationship between rent leve...
Certainly a case can be made that some of the recent price movement has been related to declining real long term yields. Rent/price yields are not uniform across cities. They decrease systematically where rents are high. In the mid-20th century, housing yields remained stable beca...
I think the Fed is generally terrible at communicating things to the outside world. Stocks are a very good inflation hedge in the long run. If you want to gamble, at least be smart about it by using products that aren’t guaranteed to kill your portfolio in the long run. ...
Last week the Fed met, and for a few hours everyone thought it meant one thing, but by the next day, everyone had decided that it didn’t mean that at all. In the end, bond yields barely moved and the outlook for the economy only changed mildly. The 10-year Treasury note yield w...
During the fund flows week, investors continued their search for yield, injecting a net $2.0 billion and $1.9 billion into taxable bond funds (including ETFs) and municipal bond funds, respectively. On the taxable side, Short Investment-Grade Debt Funds (+$884 million) attracted the l...
Fast-rising inflation could have major economic consequences with implications that reach far beyond the checkout aisle. The best-known measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index [CPI], rose 5% in May 2021 compared with the same month last year — the biggest annual rise sin...
The latest update for the June 2021 central bank conclave shows several more voting members projecting the first rate hikes to begin toward the end of next year, a supposedly very hawkish shift from the last time. While that may be true, it also doesn’t mean anything, especiall...
Released on 16 June, the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed could hike interest rates twice in 2023 instead of 2024 or later, as it had projected in March. We see the recent rise in inflation expectations as a welcome development because infl...
April CPI came in at 4.16%, and May CPI hit an eye-popping 4.99%, both higher than the consensus expectations. But, rather than being broad-based, consumer inflation appears to be concentrated in just a few specific items. When examining these specific items that have experienced ...
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2024-07-14 22:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 02:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...