The Trade Desk: Catching A Falling Knife Or Buying The Reset? (Rating Downgrade)

2026-03-06 15:26:00 ET

Overview

After OpenAI (OPENAI) rumors and CEO Jeffrey Green’s massive open market stock acquisition, I wanted to revisit The Trade Desk, Inc. ( TTD ) this morning. I last wrote about The Trade Desk in May 2025…just months before “the fall.” My DCF model at that time implied TTD was priced for at least 25% CAGR, and I pointed out that the >20% mark was the “inflection point.” Given that the programmatic advertising market was projected for 22.8% CAGR, this didn’t appear like an unreasonable assumption. Although a bit wary of its premium valuation, I stuck with a Buy rating....

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