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Summary Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan. Sto...
After Friday’s big payroll number, stocks sank as the buzz was that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting. And they well might. One of the amazing developments of the Covid pandemic was that many people who were forced to stay...
Since the beginning of 2022, the Cboe Volatility Index® (“VIX”) futures curve has shifted higher, indicating that expectations for volatility in the market remain elevated. A state of contango represents the expectation that the VIX index will increase from its curr...
The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...
The FOMC meeting is scheduled for this Wednesday, July 27. The stock market is playing this Fed meeting as if it is a non-event. The market may find out the Fed is not ready to cave in just yet. The week of July 25 will be a big one for markets, with the FOMC meeting on ...
Volatility can sometimes be misunderstood as something to avoid, however, understanding volatility strategies can be useful in many trading environments. Historically, market participants purchasing protection against downside price movements are willing to pay a premium to compensate...
We expect elevated inflation to continue into 2023 due to the lagged impact of food supply disruption and elevated energy costs. Should a recession occur, its scale is likely to be limited by the reduced number of negative feedback loops. Consumers enter this slowdown with a large...
Investors are terrified. Such is what you would assume from recent mainstream media headlines and CNBC’s continuous run of “Markets In Turmoil.”. The massive Federal Reserve interventions, bailouts, and zero rates provided a perverse incentive to take on extreme f...
Stocks had a ripsnorter of a rally last week and a lot of people are pondering the question in the title over this long weekend. Sentiment is certainly negative right now by several measures. Sentiment surveys (AAII, Investor’s Intelligence, etc.) are universally negative becau...
A large call option trade on the VIX with a strike of 150 by year-end has the writings of the "50-cent trader." The strike of VIX at 150 is an example of extreme tail risk; at that level of volatility, the 2008 financial crisis would look like a small event. The trader buying extr...