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2023-06-07 11:40:00 ET Summary Data suggests the US economy is certainly slowing down, but it does not tell us a recession is definitely underway. Recent data has shown a cooling of China’s economic growth, but I believe it’s temporary, and also lopsided. The eur...
2023-06-07 04:00:00 ET Summary We don’t see a high probability of a boom or a bust so long as the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation aggressively. The economy and corporate profits are holding up better than expected. The financial markets aren’t the economy a...
2023-06-07 03:22:56 ET Summary Infrastructure’s focus on cash flows and underlying earnings makes it a prudent investment as economic conditions deteriorate and a recession looms. Dividends from infrastructure assets, unlike most fixed income, act as an inflation hedge due ...
2023-06-06 18:30:00 ET Summary Why employment data is helping to push back the recession scenario. Strong jobs market means rates may not be coming down anytime soon. Why interest rate cuts may not happen until 2024 now. The latest U.S. jobs data showed emplo...
2023-06-06 10:17:00 ET Summary The five most expensive tech companies now make up a record 25.7% of the S&P 500. The tech-centric Nasdaq 100 has risen the most compared to the economically-sensitive Russell 2000 since the stock market peak in March 2000. When rare mania pr...
2023-06-06 09:59:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 reached a new high for 2023, driven mainly by tech mega-caps. A broader rally could continue if economic data remains mixed and the Fed pauses rate hikes. Technical indicators suggest a potential 9% surge in the stock market if a ...
2023-06-06 05:38:00 ET Summary The US economy faces concerns such as Fed tightening, high inflation, tighter bank lending standards, and leading indicators pointing to a potential downturn. The job market remains solid, but some worsening data suggests that its strength may have p...
2023-06-06 04:39:00 ET Summary The Fed may not raise rates in July, as inflation is expected to continue to decline. Housing prices have been falling for the past 18 months, which will lead to negative Owner's Equivalent Rent component of the CPI in the coming months. The econ...
2023-06-05 19:35:00 ET Summary The US may be adding jobs in huge numbers, but the key ISM business surveys cast serious doubt on how long this can last. The manufacturing ISM index is already indicating recession and the service sector will soon join it unless order books turn aro...
2023-06-02 22:30:00 ET Summary The service sector has historically kept the US economy afloat during manufacturing contractions, allowing for a "soft landing" scenario. The monetary conditions index suggests economic growth will pick up later this year, which could explain the sto...
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