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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represented a particularly challenging situation for financial markets last week, after they had already weakened on anxieties about high inflation and rising interest rates. When it comes to commodities, however, Russia is a major supplier: Raw mat...
Global markets tumble on Russian attack on Ukraine. Russian inflation stokes stagflation fears. Commodities the big winner in Russian attack. For further details see: Markets Sell Off As Russia Attacks Ukraine: What's At Stake For Investors?
European energy markets became very tight and volatile over the course of 2021. Most industrial sectors are energy-intensive and rely more on gas and power for heating and feedstock, where prices have skyrocketed. High-profit margins are a cushion for higher procurement prices. ...
With January’s 7.5% headline CPI reading coming in as the highest inflation number in nearly 40 years, now seems an opportune time to assess the outlook for inflation. Understanding where inflation is heading is not only important from an economic perspective, but the direction...
There is one huge thing that is missing in all the buzz about inflation: the surging M2 money supply. As real rates move higher, the demand for money becomes intense, liquidity becomes scarce, and marginal firms get squeezed. Swap spreads are a highly liquid indicator of general l...
The phrases, 'buy on the dips', 'volatility', and 'market correction' have traders and market watchers all abuzz. In rising markets, "buying on the dips" makes sense. By understanding the overall market direction for the underlying market or commodity studied, buying organizations...
Beginning with what is perhaps the best indicator of growth potential in the real economy, as opposed to just the financial economy, the G3 credit impulse is now firmly in negative territory after peaking in the latter stages of 2020. Turning to manufacturing, building permits for new...
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are sometimes punted as an alternative to direct investments on metals exchanges, like the LME or CME. But as a recent article in the Financial Times suggests, ETF investors are facing a similar question to trade or hedge fund speculators in estimating ...
To date, 2021 has been as almost good as it gets for equity investors. Any slowdown in growth has yet to feed into consensus earnings forecasts which have continued to increase over the summer. Investors have few high-yielding alternatives for as long as real and nominal bond yiel...
Following the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented stimulus response, supply bottlenecks and a rebound in demand have been a feature of 2021. We observe that a diversified portfolio approach has had the highest correlation to upside inflation and the leas...