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Following the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented stimulus response, supply bottlenecks and a rebound in demand have been a feature of 2021. We observe that a diversified portfolio approach has had the highest correlation to upside inflation and the leas...
After the pandemic’s initial spending splurge, the bill is due, and global growth is mean-reverting again. Treasury yields are confirming the disinflationary ride as we thought that they should. Similar trends are unfolding in the great hot north, with Canadian government b...
My reading of the current environment is relatively clear; both the longer term and shorter-term leading growth indicators are pointing toward the heightened possibility of slowing cyclical growth. As a result, these downward trends suggest investors ought to be rotating out of the re...
2 things that always happen at or prior to the start of a boom-to-bust transition for the US economy. One is a clear-cut widening of credit spreads. The other is pronounced weakness in the Industrial Metals Index (GYX) relative to the gold price. There are many different credit-spread...
Prices for metals have soared despite the uncertainties wrought by the pandemic. Metal prices rose sharply over the past year, with copper and steel up 50%, and iron ore appreciating 115% through June. China's ongoing structural reforms have laid a foundation for the recovery and ...
Rising sea levels, extreme weather, lack of rainfall will have an impact on both mining, metals refining and manufacturing operations. Automotive, aircraft, shipping and, most of all, productive industries like steel, aluminum, zinc and thermal power generation will go through enormou...
One of the most useful intermediate-term indicators of the financial/economic landscape is the performance of industrial metals relative to gold as indicated by the GYX/gold ratio. There are signs in the equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets that a shift away from risk is unde...
When the markets goes on the make a new high and all economically sensitive sectors such as these do not confirm the new high, it is a clear signal the new highs are not being supported by economic fundamentals. We are seeing significant bearish divergences in almost all measures of b...
MSCI US REIT Index rallied 2.7% in June, which marks an impressive run of eight consecutive monthly increases. The Russell 3000 Index jumped 2.5% in June, the fifth straight monthly advance. Comparing GMI to US stocks and bonds shows that global asset allocation remains competitiv...
Headline inflation numbers have been brutal, with the CPI rising at rates that would normally call for a fast, hard tightening. Price trends in the industrial and agricultural commodities space are generally flattening, with only iron ore continuing higher. As supply chains unkink...
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