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Summary Powell’s speech last Wednesday raised recession fears. The Atlanta Fed revised its third-quarter GDP estimate down to a +0.3% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of a +0.5% annual pace. U.S. interest rates also shot up in response to the Fed Chair’s ...
Summary Even if the political landscape were to become temporarily supportive, it would be too risky to invest in anything other than small projects with rapid paybacks. Regime Uncertainty is a pervasive lack of confidence among investors in their ability to foresee the extent to ...
Summary The British pound UK gilts – the equivalent of U.S. Treasuries – had outsized moves on Friday with 10-year gilts surging as much as 50 basis points in a single day, while the pound cratered. The outsized Fed rate hikes in the middle of all this volatility are...
Summary While European and Asian natural gas prices have fallen significantly from their recent peak, they remain at exceptionally high levels. High Eurasian natural gas prices are having both short-term and long-term effects. If the trend toward lower costs for alternative en...
Summary On 16 August 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the IRA. The COVID-19-related global supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, rising inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine crisis have pushed the cost of capital to record highs. Meanwhile, in China, surging c...
Summary The energy market has certainly had a very positive year so far. FTSE All World Oil, Gas & Coal is up 20% YTD (to end August), 39% ahead of the broader FTSE All World Equity Index. Looking more broadly across asset classes, whilst energy equities were strong (and less ...
Summary The clock is ticking for Europe to shield its economy in the current energy crisis. One of the measures being touted is imposing an energy windfall tax on oil and gas profits to help households and businesses survive this upcoming winter season. As Europe plans to redu...
Summary It is not clear what a new market design would look like, but many politicians have called for price caps, albeit in many different forms. The merit order ensures that the cheapest technologies enter the market first but implies that the price is set by the most expensive ...
Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...
Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...
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2024-07-05 05:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 00:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...