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Summary New Omicron outbreaks in the context of Covid-zero policy, the housing slump, and heat waves have been holding up the pace of the Chinese economy. China’s current growth slowdown is an additional step in the trajectory of gradually declining rates that has accompani...
Summary Equities rebounded in recent weeks as investors considered the prospects of a possible pivot by major central banks, especially after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Similar to Europe, core inflation and services inflation are expected to rise ...
Summary The July gain puts the level of total durable goods orders at $273.5 billion, the third highest on record. Despite the gain, real new orders for capital goods are trending nearly flat over the past year. Durable goods orders have posted a strong recovery from the lockd...
Summary The recent bounce in equity prices has just been a rather pedestrian bear market rally. Bull markets are not engendered by a faltering global economy, very high rates of inflation, and the most hawkish global central bank tightening cycle in history. The $6 trillion of hel...
A more attractive equity valuation environment, combined with the removal of uncertainty, may present opportunity for stock-specific alpha as the focus shifts to company fundamentals. Following three years of gains, U.S. equity markets have experienced a number of challenges thus far ...
Fed fund futures, bonds, and the dollar all see a very hawkish Fed. The stock market rally appears to be over as momentum chasing ends. Now all Powell has to do is leave no doubt in his message on Friday. A day of reckoning is coming for the stock market, possibly as soon as...
Last quarter, we discussed the ongoing trends of sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve. These trends accelerated in Q2 as the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose again to 9.1% in June. Equity volatility remains elevated, but strategies such as covered calls can offer compelling op...
Stories often get investors looking the wrong way. Much of the latest research suggests that investors move away from relying upon market stories. 4090SPX is our next main support region. The more I read public articles and the comments thereto, the more hair I tear out ...
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July, with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3-month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The data in August so far has bee...
A new survey by PwC says 50% of employers plan layoffs. Signs of a U.S. manufacturing recession are appearing in Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S.) regional reports. The real estate sector, a major driver of economic growth, is slowing. Non-bank mortgage lenders are filing for...