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Summary The Hang Seng index plummeted to the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. While the Hang Seng plummeted, U.S. equities rallied and we wound up +1.5% on the day. While everyone is glum about digital advertising, sometimes it makes sense to take a step...
Summary Stock markets are still reeling from this year’s dramatic events. If equities have fallen primarily because of rising rates, the market may not yet be pricing in growing threats to company fundamentals. Similar situations unfolded in many sectors, impacting both...
Summary Year-over-year, Gross Domestic Product rose by 1.8 percent in the third quarter of 2022, the same as in the second quarter. No recession in sight as far as the GDP numbers are concerned, but there are a lot of other data out there that suggest just the opposite. The ge...
Summary While most companies are reporting weak earnings, expectations are now very low. Where are the risks and opportunities? Earnings from Microsoft, Google, Snap, AMD, Micron, Carmax provide a glimpse into tough macro trends. Here we provide thoughts on where we are in the...
Summary What really moved the GDP needle was the reversal of the “freak event” that had sunk GDP in Q1, when net exports had collapsed by a historic amount. “Real” GDP, after dipping in Q1 and Q2, more than fully recovered in Q3 and eked out a new recor...
Summary Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 4.0 percentage points to 26.6%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, jumped 6.6 percentage points to 27...
Summary New orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in September, following a 0.2% gain in August. Total durable goods orders are up 11.3% from a year ago. Real new orders for capital goods are up 6.7% from a year ago but remain below the January 2022 level. Durable goods orders ha...
Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose by 3,000 for the week ending October 22nd, coming in at 217,000. The number of ongoing claims for state unemployment programs totaled 1.197 million for the week ending October 8th, a drop of 1,325 from the prior ...
Summary Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6% annualized rate in the third quarter versus a 0.6% rate of decline in the second quarter and -1.6 pace in the first quarter. Consumer price measures showed another rise in the third quarter, though the pace decelerated. Linger...
Summary GDP came in better than expected, and nominal growth remains very strong. The GDP number suggests the Fed still has plenty of work left to do. The fear of missing out has gotten ahead of itself once again. The US economy remains robust, with a 2.6% real GDP g...