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Summary We expect the first half of 2023 to be choppy as markets process inflation data. Later in the year, central banks should moderate interest-rate hikes, inducing a sustainable risk-asset rally. We expect macro factors to remain in focus, with investors closely watching inflation a...
Summary The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January according to the latest business survey data from S&P Global. Jobs growth has also cooled, with January seeing a far weaker increase in payroll numbers...
Summary Much of the 2022 flavor of the polycrisis focused on the danger side. But there are opportunities to be explored as well. As we look ahead to 2023, we are at the same time mindful of the potential threats that await and the opportunities that may present themselves as everything...
Summary Market volatility rewarded diversified indices in 2022. The case for Stratified Weight in 2023. Leading Themes: Infrastructure, Defensives and Inflation. Laggard Theme: “Advertising Revenue Model”. The Stratified LargeCap Index outperformed by 9.3...
Summary Market volatility rewarded diversified indices in 2022. The case for Stratified Weight in 2023. Leading Themes: Infrastructure, Defensives and Inflation. Laggard Theme: “Advertising Revenue Model”. The Stratified LargeCap Index outperformed by 9.3...
Summary We’re at a fascinating juncture here in the markets. Stocks have sold off hard for a little over a year now but have rallied once again in the short run. The result is that the S&P 500 Index has formed a fairly tight coil or pennant pattern over the past several month...
Summary Leading and 'hard' data for the labor market are disagreeing, with the former breaking down while the latter remains strong. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will give investors an edge in determining when the unemployment rate will increase. Reallocating a portion of your port...
Summary Tightening monetary policy drove rising 10-year Treasury bond yields and pressured equity valuations in 2022. Interest rates will drive the market environment, to some extent, according to our U.S. growth and core equity and U.S. value equity teams. Given the lagged impact, ...
Summary The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released new Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday, and it looks like the rate of increase in price inflation is slowing. In December, year-over-year PPI growth came in at 6.2 percent which was a 21-month low. December's print was a (...
Summary The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete. While the most extreme froth has been wiped off the market, valuations are still nowhere near their long-term averages. For those with a longer horizon than average, I believe stock...