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Summary As economies both in the United States and globally weaken with tighter monetary policies, corporate earnings are coming under greater pressure. Without exception, in the 24 months prior to a recession, large caps outperformed small caps. Higher-quality investments did not m...
Summary The Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, but markets are increasingly of the view that the Fed will reverse course and rates will end the year where they started. The Fed continues to fret about inflation, arguing that a tight jobs market leaves open the risk that p...
Summary How many more Fed rate hikes to come? What the U.S. bond market is saying about the economy. Outlook for the US dollar. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point hike in an effort to tamp down on inflation and signaled further increases at upco...
Summary The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate range 25bp to 4.5-4.75% and indicated it isn’t finished yet. With the economy losing momentum, the jobs market showing tentative signs of cooling and inflation on a downward path, we expect one final 25bp hike in March. Reces...
Summary We appear to be finally reaching the endgame for rate hikes. Signs reveal that inflation has not only peaked but could be cooling quicker than policy makers expected. Whether the Fed delivers another quarter-point rate hike or even an additional increase after that, the more...
Summary Some of you will probably argue that wealth-to-GDP has mean reverted for about a year now (which is true), but things definitely took a turn for the worse towards the end of last year with inflation out of control in many countries. Since the third quarter of that year, when wea...
Summary January brought gains across most asset classes, especially for the junkiest debt, equities, and crypto-Ponzis. The bulls are chomping at the bit to convince us that the 2022 loss cycle is now over. Today, the US Fed is still in tightening mode via rate hike plans and ongoin...
Summary A massive disconnect between consumer sentiment and the retail stock allocation has developed. Despite the onset of a bear market, the allocation of investment portfolios for retail investors and mainstream, dumb-money institutional money managers remains historically high. ...
Summary Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in December 2022 is $79,405, an increase of $193 (or 0.2%) from the initial estimate of $79,212 in November 2022. Adjusted for inflation, December 2022's estimated median household income represents a new record...
Summary The key feature of bubble symmetry is the entire bubble retraces in roughly the same time frame as it took to soar to absurd heights. At the peak and for some time after, bubbles are viewed as the natural order of markets and so they should continue expanding forever. But th...