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Summary Jobless claims rose this week, coming in at 196K on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to forecasts of a more modest increase to 190K. Before seasonal adjustments, claims rose from 225K to 234K. Continuing claims similarly rose by more than expected, reaching 1.688 million...
Summary Are markets facing a possible earnings recession? Layoff headlines vs. labour market reality. Should investors be worried about the long-term earnings picture? While the possibility of peak inflation may be a positive for markets, the outlook for earnings may tem...
Summary A mild recession is coming in the US. Unemployment and migration trends are shifting. How will these factors play out across different states and regions? In 2022, 28 states registered a record low unemployment rate, as demographic trends and pandemic-related disruptions continu...
Summary Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to decelerate its rate hikes with a quarter-point hike. Investors have been celebrating that the worst is behind us and the prospects of a soft landing in the economy is the base-case scenario. Despite the perceived Fed pivot, the Fed...
Summary The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 517,000 jobs, which was well above expectations. In recent months, employment growth has increasingly been driven by part-time rather than f...
Summary Over the past year, banks have reported tighter lending standards on commercial loans to small, large, and middle-market firms. Large corporate bankruptcies have spiked the most since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock valuations typically tumble during recessions as the unemp...
Summary A recession in the United States and in Europe will be less severe than had been expected. Continued economic and military support from the West is the most critical element I think for Ukraine going forward. There's been some improvement in the tone of the relationship betw...
Summary This month, the Bureau of Labor announced significant revisions and is why tracking the trend is more valuable for economic insight than any single report. The tone in the media is shifting from extreme pessimism to “my god, it’s far better than we thought”....
Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...
Summary Over the past couple of months, we have seen a clear downtrend emerge in the coincident measure of economic growth, suggesting we are on the path to recession. Inflation is also clearly rolling over. However, this is not the case within the labour market nor the services sector,...