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Summary I'm not buying the “Wishful Disinflation” and “Wishful Pivot” theories regarding Inflation and the Fed. "Fundamentals" and "Technicals" both suggest stocks could stay rangebound in the coming months. The investment backdrop is so fragile any forec...
Summary Between “stimulus checks,” swelling bank accounts, no job to go to, and a free stock trading app on every phone, retail traders poured into the market chasing everything from cryptocurrencies to bankrupt companies. Given the impact of retail traders on the markets ...
Summary Disinflation trends are struggling and now Wall Street will look to see if improving manufacturing and service activity will further fuel pricing pressures. Eurozone: While headline inflation has been falling, core remains at the peak and policymakers are unlikely to ease off th...
Summary The case for raising equity allocations when interest rates were close to zero was easy. After a year of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the calculus is more complicated. It’s important to also make some assumptions about how equity returns will unfold over a ...
Summary Given the forecastable nature of the business cycle, understanding what markets are pricing in from a business cycle perspective is an integral tool to one’s asset allocation decisions. As it stands, stocks as a whole have done a solid job pricing in the growth slowdown. ...
Summary Canadian inflation is decelerating, but jobs and spending remain strong. The full impact of interest rates hikes may not be felt yet. TD Asset Management's Alexandra Gorewicz says there may be a case to hold rates for now. Strong economic data has some inve...
Summary Markets don’t top when everyone is overweight bonds; they top when everyone is overweight stocks. The trends are your friends. The intermediate-term outlook for equities is pretty darn good. In last week’s note we reiterated our case from October that the...
Summary Provisional PMI survey data for February indicate encouraging resilience of the major developed economies of the world, with reviving output growth in the US and Europe allaying fears of near-term recessions. Growth was recorded in all four economies for the first time since Jun...
Summary Inflationary fears have reasserted themselves among investors in the last month. This has led to an upward revision to the Federal Reserve's target rate trajectory, increased Treasury yields, and lower stock prices. The data supports a more sanguine view of inflation, as hea...
Summary The Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign over the past year has trimmed this spread to below 2%. Even during the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation averaged over 6% for two decades, dividend growth kept pace with inflation. For much of the last decade, equities comfortab...