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Summary To identify what stocks to short, we focused on five factors: value, quality, momentum, low-volatility, and growth. Tech and health care dominated the expensive and high-volatility portfolios over the 17 years under review. The challenge of short selling may lie in the asymm...
Summary Year-over-year growth in consumer debt payments since 2020 has outstripped growth in discretionary income by the most on record. Some $10 trillion of US private debt up for renewal in 2023 now faces interest costs 400 to 500 basis points higher than they have been paying. A ...
Summary The economic data has been on the strong side lately. I don't think the Fed will hike rates by 50 bps in March. The fighting has intensified somewhat, and we are seeing pressure on both the euro and the ruble in the past two weeks. Last week, Rick Santelli on live ...
Summary Like the bloated January jobs report, the retail sales report was also apparently distorted by seasonal adjustments. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes were released on Wednesday, revealing that the vast majority of FOMC voting members favored a 0.25% key interest ...
Summary There are many bad reasons for borrowing, and some companies seem intent on using these bad reasons. Not only do interest coverage ratios and debt-to-EBITDA multiples vary widely across firms, but they also vary across sectors. A combination of high inflation and a steep rec...
Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research takes time to define periods of economic expansion and contraction - and they do so in hindsight; equity markets are not trading based on these characterizations. The low degree of difference between the S&P 500 Index and the WisdomTr...
Summary Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has raised rates by 450bps, and yet, economic data so far in 2023 shows a booming labor market, strong consumer spending growth and somewhat higher-than-expected inflation. But investors, economists and policymakers be warned: there are lo...
Summary The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates continues to loom large over the markets. The US is in the late stage of the economic cycle. What to expect in a late-stage economy. The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates continues to loom large over the marke...
Summary The consequences of decades of unsound money are coming home to roost. Investment-grade bond funds posted inflows of $184 million, while junk bond funds reported outflows of $6.125 billion (from Lipper). The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose last month ...
Summary Most market participants incorrectly view the market from a pure cause-and-effect structure. In so doing, they ignore the many anomalies which argue against that construct. I think the market may re-group, and make another attempt at a rally to 4300SPX. I am going ...