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2023-03-09 23:59:44 ET Summary Chairman Powell: Be careful what you wish for because you might wind up getting it. Updated budget and economic projections. China, Amazon, and more. This week I watched the classic film “Barbarians at the Gate” for the first ...
2023-03-09 13:02:10 ET Summary Jay Powell's Congressional testimony has shocked rates higher. This has led to real yields rising, and a decline in the TIP ETF. The Nasdaq tends to follow the TIP ETF very closely. The Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) could be on the verge of a ...
2023-03-09 12:53:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is rallying this morning in the wake of today’s weekly jobless claims print. Although the seasonally adjusted number has gone on an impressive streak of sub-200K prints, the unadjusted number never fell below that threshold. ...
2023-03-09 11:20:25 ET Summary US bond and equity markets are at a major crossroads. In this context, Friday's Employment Situation Report has extraordinary importance. Technical analysis reflects the complex evolution of macro-fundamental expectations since October 2022 and h...
2023-03-09 09:10:00 ET Summary January 2023 should have seen U.S. imports from China rebound following the Chinese government's lifting of its failed zero-COVID lockdowns at the end of December 2022. Because those lockdowns had greatly disrupted significant sectors of China's expo...
2023-03-09 02:17:04 ET Summary The market appears too aggressive expecting a 50-basis-point rate hike at the next Fed meeting. A "soft" payroll report or slowdown in the CPI update could be bullish for stocks by resetting monetary policy expectations. We highlight the themes t...
2023-03-09 01:27:00 ET Summary After slowly zig-zagging higher for months from the tightest-labor-market lows, layoffs jumped in January. There is a clear pattern of returning to the normal range – a sign the labor market is getting a little less tight. The decline in q...
2023-03-08 23:34:27 ET Summary Powell was unsurprisingly hawkish this week as economic data continues to surprise to the upside. Inflation data has also moved higher. We get CPI data next week. Any disappointment could be met harshly by investors. The economy is strengthening....
2023-03-08 12:57:03 ET Summary The payrolls report for February is likely to be strong, possibly exceeding expectations. The Fed might be forced to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes to 50bpt in March. Thus, the probability of a sharp selloff in S&P 500 is very hig...
2023-03-08 10:40:37 ET Summary As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell visits Capitol Hill this week, he reinforces his determination to get inflation back to 2%. Fed Fund futures are already factoring in a 50bp move at the next FOMC meeting, with a terminal rate as high as 5.75...