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2023-03-13 11:00:00 ET Summary Many have gotten quite bearish when following the news. Our analysis of the market over the last week did not take news into account, as we outlined the movements well before it happened. I am still looking for a bottoming structure, which can st...
2023-03-13 09:55:00 ET Summary Absolute “risklessness” does not exist, nor can there be such an asset in an absolute sense. There are known and unknown opportunities to lose all or some value of an asset. It’s likely investors in SVB never considered they were...
2023-03-13 06:30:00 ET Summary Higher yields are causing fixed-income allocations to increase. The Fed funds rate is close to the yield of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index of investment-grade bonds. If you can stay alert to and access opportunities in more niche and less liq...
2023-03-13 05:02:00 ET Summary This February, the Household Survey represented 57% of the Headline number, coming in at 177k vs 311k. In January, there was a decrease of 144k thousand jobs, but February has made up for that loss with 176k jobs added. The collapse of Silicon Va...
2023-03-13 05:00:00 ET Summary Some of the issues at SVB are shared by almost all banks. Most local banks hold loans to maturity so they are carrying them at cost. Stocks fell early in the week as short-term rates rose and another rate hike was priced in based on Powell’...
2023-03-13 04:30:00 ET Summary The total number of employed persons is up less than one percent over two years. Month-over-month job growth was generally positive. As real wages have fallen, the ability to keep up with home-price growth has been impacted. By Ryan M...
2023-03-13 04:28:00 ET Summary One of the things that have surprised me over the years (in a good way) is that macro shocks align with technical, more often than not when technical patterns are strong. One of the other key rules to keep in mind is that nothing is near 100% in mark...
2023-03-13 03:00:00 ET Summary Regional bank stocks came under heavy selling pressure this week. Rate markets believe SVB will have a significant influence on the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. The Fed now faces the predicament that has been galvanizing for the past year....
2023-03-12 09:37:28 ET Summary The narrative has shifted bearish, supports have broken and bears are in charge. What to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ahead. Key technical levels and probable outcomes. The S&P 500 (SPY) made a 'bearish engulfing' candle thi...
2023-03-12 06:15:00 ET Summary The February CPI is expected to come on Tuesday, March 12. Analysts are looking for a 6% y/y increase in the CPI. However, the CPI swaps market and the Cleveland Fed see an upside surprise being delivered. The CPI report has become one ...