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2023-03-18 00:30:00 ET Summary After disrupting the trend of lower readings last week, this week’s reading on initial jobless claims returned to improvements as the print totaled 192K. Before seasonal adjustment, claims are sitting at 217.4K. Not only were initial claim...
2023-03-17 18:44:00 ET Summary Fighting high inflation is tough enough, but Fed has been trying to tame pricing pressure when the economy is showing signs of weakening, at least in some corners. The central bank normally eases monetary policy and cuts interest rates when economic ...
2023-03-17 09:00:00 ET Summary The current banking debacle has gotten many people nervous, and rightfully so. The issues which have come to light have now caused millions to go from the frying pan into the fire. It is time for you to take finding a safe bank seriously. ...
2023-03-17 05:19:59 ET Summary Employment data, a lagging indicator, shows a robust employment picture. Regional Business Indicators reveal a rapidly slowing economy. Single-family housing in the doldrums, making it very hard for the economy to grow. Slowing Economic...
2023-03-17 04:45:00 ET Summary Before this week, many had been surprised by the lack of financial stress arising from this tightening cycle, given its speed and size. Many view SVB's failure as the first sign of systemic risk arising from the Fed’s monetary tightening. ...
2023-03-17 03:58:25 ET Summary We were seeing warning signs in Financials long before the current regional banking crisis. On February 22nd, we even posted a public warning about this sector flashing warning signals. When you add up the prior 3-month (inflationary) readings and an...
2023-03-17 03:40:00 ET Summary The market gyrations are not rooted in a banking crisis, but in financial cracks from rapid rate hikes. We expect central banks to take actions to shore up the financial system – but to keep hiking rates. We see opportunities in short-term...
2023-03-17 03:05:00 ET Summary The Fed and U.S. Treasury have made to decision to back-stop depositors at U.S. banks – a liability that could potentially hit $2 trillion. However, the scale of the problem this time, compared to 2008, is multiples larger. Aside from what...
2023-03-17 02:10:29 ET Summary Credit Suisse is having difficulty. What else is new? Over-tightening could become more inflationary than not tightening enough. Updates on China and auto suppliers. Recency bias, or availability bias, is a cognitive error identifie...
2023-03-16 23:56:00 ET Summary This week’s chart of the week shows how the standard credit cycle operates and the way the borrowing booms and busts across time. Credit risk isn’t just creeping up on us. It punched everyone in the face this week. And it is likely to g...