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2023-03-28 15:27:00 ET Summary US consumer confidence improved in March despite concerns about bank failures and what it might mean for deposits. It supports a narrative of near-term spending strength, but higher borrowing costs and reduced access to credit are major headwinds whi...
2023-03-28 14:30:00 ET Summary Companies pushing up share prices with buybacks have greatly supported stock prices over the past decade. Recent Goldman Sachs data shows that executed buybacks were -20% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2022. Many loans and bonds were iss...
2023-03-28 14:00:00 ET Summary Despite an ongoing banking crisis, investors continue to chase stocks triggering several bullish buy signals. A rally toward 4200 is possible, as investor psychology is not always logical. We will use that rally to reduce risk and rebalance portf...
2023-03-28 12:56:00 ET Summary In this article, I will attempt to present a broad guide for each major asset class - stocks, bonds, commodities and precious metals - and how investors should be looking to allocate to each over the next six to 12 months. Pension funds and instituti...
2023-03-28 08:30:00 ET Summary Hiking interest rates in the middle of a financial crisis has been done before, so what Fed Chair Jerome Powell did last Wednesday is not without precedent. We don’t have deflation now, but Powell is fighting inflation, which is rapidly fallin...
2023-03-28 05:00:00 ET Summary The primary reason why China wants a cease-fire in Ukraine is that the G7 has started sanctioning Chinese companies that do business with Russia. The European Union and Canada’s goals of reducing carbon dioxide emissions can have severe conseq...
2023-03-27 17:06:00 ET Summary At December 31st, 2022, the S&P 500 was priced to return 3.26%/year over the next ten years. Congress and the President regularly run huge deficits with the tacit support of the Fed. There is a long left tail, but not as long as the Great Dep...
2023-03-27 13:20:00 ET Summary Buyers and sellers both tend to agree that stock markets will be a lot higher in the future, disagreeing only as to when, by how much, and the cause of a large advance. I suggest investors focus on the market, economy, and shifting political conditio...
2023-03-27 11:25:00 ET Summary It makes sense to prepare for the turning point in this cycle - but not by returning to the winners from the last cycle. Growth would slow and unemployment would rise, and while credit defaults would remain low for the time being, a decline in corpor...
2023-03-27 08:00:00 ET Summary I don’t think there is a financial reason to withdraw your funds from a small bank, especially if your deposits are below the FDIC limit. The fall in interest rates due to economic growth concerns has seen investors shift back to the assets th...