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2023-04-01 02:02:00 ET Summary The March US jobs report may not be enough to stop the Fed from tightening another 25 basis points in May. The South African Reserve Bank surprised markets and raised rates by 50 basis points in March, taking the policy rate to 7.75%. China: the ...
2023-04-01 00:30:00 ET Summary Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. Claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims re...
2023-03-31 03:29:51 ET Summary A number of COVID-era fiscal support measures are set to end in 2023, which could pressure consumer spending, particularly amongst lower-income individuals. The immediate impact of this will likely be muted as consumers still have fairly strong balan...
2023-03-31 03:23:21 ET Summary In the past two weeks or so, the United States has experienced bank failures, Europe has experienced bank problems, and there is word that more may be in the future. Last week the Fed raised its policy rate of interest. Furthermore, the Fed conti...
2023-03-31 02:45:00 ET Summary In the event of any further stresses in banks, the U.S. government is very likely to raise the FDIC coverage limit for banks that fail. A repeat of the 2008 financial crisis is very unlikely. Regulators have made the necessary moves to keep issue...
2023-03-31 02:30:00 ET Summary Given the atypical nature of this economic cycle, we expect the eventual constraints on employment from tighter financial conditions to be even further delayed. The uncertain timing around the impact on employment has been compounded by an extremely ...
2023-03-31 01:25:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month’s range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tigh...
2023-03-31 00:29:00 ET Summary Things seem to be calming down in financial markets, which could be interpreted in one of two ways. So far, I lean towards the benign interpretation — there are some areas of weakness, but not a lot of visible credit failures in the real econo...
2023-03-30 23:27:42 ET Summary The Fed lost money in the 4th quarter for the first time in 107 years. The loss was -$15.8 billion. The loss was due to the asset/liability match on the Fed's balance sheet where they hold fixed rate assets funded by variable rate liabilities. ...
2023-03-30 11:22:51 ET Summary Over the past ten years or so, the venture capital world has been awash with funds, even during times that might be considered to be "downtimes." It is becoming very apparent that the venture capital world benefited from the same "asset bubble" that ...