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2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...
2023-07-12 03:30:00 ET Summary The high-yield sector offers attractive absolute and relative return prospects due to resilient corporate fundamentals. Consumers and labor market conditions remain on solid footing. Spreads have mostly widened from the end of 2022 through the en...
2023-07-10 21:10:00 ET Summary At the beginning of this year, the consensus was that a recession was imminent (within 6 months) so stocks would perform poorly in the first half of the year; bonds were the better choice. The 10-year Treasury yield finally broke above the short-term...
2023-07-04 01:50:00 ET Summary The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) at last count. Even at that, many bond experts are saying that we are still in “lucky&...
2023-07-03 22:27:00 ET Summary Central banks are finding it hard to finish the long journey toward inflation normalization, but we believe that policy rates are likely at or near their peaks - and could be maintained at elevated levels for some time. With roughly 500 basis points ...
2023-07-03 18:39:00 ET Summary Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before the end of the year. Lower rates are seen as positive for high-multiple growth stocks and with a dash of artificial intelligence throw...
2023-06-29 23:40:00 ET Summary The world is not going through a replay of the 1970s, as there are some critical differences between the current situation and the situation back then. However, this decade’s macroeconomic path probably will have a lot more in common with the ...
2023-06-27 09:45:00 ET Summary Crude oil prices are expected to soar due to all the uncertainty surrounding new developments within Russia. Since the PPI has been negative for three of the past four months, plus the CPI is expected to plunge in July when the June CPI is announced,...
2023-06-23 07:30:00 ET Summary The monetary liquidity in the economy still runs very high as a percentage of GDP. Given the massive increase in activity due to a shuttered economy and massive fiscal stimulus, the reversion may take longer than normal. While the economy has cor...
2023-06-22 03:11:00 ET Summary The new Powell arithmetic: The Fed and the rates market believe that policy is restrictive. But uncertainty remains as the Fed signaled additional hikes and bond markets have priced in a higher probability of additional “insurance” hikes be...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...