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Despite a weaker February, more forward-looking data remains robust and the economic growth outlook is strong. The concern that's developing is, of course, on inflation. We are likely to see a move higher in inflation in the near term. Strategas Chief Economist Don Rissmiller dive...
As Treasury yields trended higher, we saw continued outperformance in taxable municipals as spreads continued to tighten. At the end of last year, we started selling some of our longer maturities, with an emphasis on corporates as their spreads tightened faster than taxable municipals...
With Brent crude oil attacking $65 and U.S. home prices up 10% over the last year, to name just two inflation indicators, it may be wise to recall that the 10-Year t-note touched 3.24% as recently as November 2018. The Street expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold off on rate hikes...
Biden's infrastructure plan came and went without major surprises. We argue that the steady drumbeat of strong economic data is the more important factor in dictating the pace of higher USD rates in the near term. An additional fiscal package is merely nice to have. The rest of th...
The recent government bond yield spike has pressured tech stocks, yet we are still constructive on technology both on tactical and strategic horizons. The Federal Reserve made clear its intent to stay behind the curve on inflation, keeping short-term rates low for longer than they wou...
The bond market is pushing long rates up for the Fed while its balance sheet is growing at $120 billion per month. Because the Fed does not want to do any tightening, even though it expects to see an uptick in inflation because of the pending reopening of the economy, I think the pres...
It appears that bond markets are returning to pricing the economic recovery. Quarter-end flow might still complicate price action, but US data later this week should bring rates back on their upward trend. In Europe, the release of Spanish and German inflation data should provide ...
Stocks were more mixed last week, with large caps up and small caps down. Markets continue to trade on the expectation of a post-virus boom, but the economic data hasn't been on the same page recently. Perception is what drives markets. Through interest rates and exchange rates an...
Fundamentals are in place for a major EM crisis, and I see reasonable probabilities of an unfolding crisis in Turkey providing the catalyst. Meanwhile, complacency in "developed" markets remains formidable. Is systemic crisis even possible while the major central banks are running ful...
America has the world's largest economy and the world's largest bond market, and yet, has higher yields than any of the developed EU countries. The reason for all of this sprang out of the financial crisis of 2008/2009, and it has sprung every year since, as the world's central banks ...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...