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Inverted yield curves - especially those driven by rapid shifts in short-term interest rates - tend to be interpreted as evidence of a risk that the Fed is about to hike the economy into recession. The inverted yield curve today is the natural end-result of a long period during which ...
The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...
Late in any economic cycle, investors will turn their attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, a bond-market gauge viewed as a harbinger of the economic outlook. The curve has a track record for foreshadowing recessions when it inverts, meaning when shorter-dated yields move above ...
As the US Treasury curve approaches the point of inversion—where shorter-term yields are higher than longer-term ones—investors are taking notice. Historically, an inverted yield curve has portended a recession and weak financial markets. Given much higher yields and...
Markets react to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Does an inverted yield curve mean recession risks are rising? China PMI surveys point to contraction in manufacturing and services sectors. For further details see: The U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Briefly Inverts. Sh...
It's that time again, where the global financial markets community swoons over the latest US jobs report. It's expected to be strong. But often the market can ignore the number and instead use it as an excuse to latch on to a preferred trend. In that respect, it will be key to see...
So the US curve has inverted, or at least in parts. We'll be a bit picky and assert that a 2/5yr inversion is the better predictor of recession; it has not inverted yet. The 2/5yr segment has not inverted just yet (but it will). The 5/10yr segment has inverted, partly as the 10yr is d...
Any inversion of a portion of the yield curve - as has just happened - is a negative long leading indicator, specifically for the period 12 to 24 months out. But the depth, duration, and breadth of the inversion are all important in assessing the weight to give the indicator. A one-da...
Inverted curves are a necessary but not sufficient condition for a recession. The yield curve inverts when the market senses that the Fed is so tight that the economy is at risk of collapsing, and that collapse would then prompt the Fed to ease. Low spreads mean the market thinks ...
Market opinion about the balance of risks was transformed back in October, which not coincidentally happened to be when the flood of inventory began showing up. Neither the more pessimistic curved stance nor the buildup of inventory has changed since. From October 2021 inventories hav...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...