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Market opinion about the balance of risks was transformed back in October, which not coincidentally happened to be when the flood of inventory began showing up. Neither the more pessimistic curved stance nor the buildup of inventory has changed since. From October 2021 inventories hav...
One factor likely having an outsized influence on the Federal Reserve’s interest policy is the current level of inflation. In an effort to curb some demand, at the conclusion of the Fed’s March 16 meeting, the Federal Reserve embarked on a path to increase interest rates...
The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current l...
Most of the stocks we are adding now are prospering from the current inflationary environment that accelerated after Russia invaded Ukraine. As investors seek inflation hedges that can prosper from stagflation, stocks remain our best bet. Specifically, commodity-related companies - as...
At present, the simplest interest rate analysis states that rates are rising as the Fed finally moves to combat inflation. What if long rates do not stop rising as the U.S. economy slows? What if sovereign selling pressure in the bond market continues and increases in the months ahead...
The first rate hike since 2018 is behind us, and the bond market celebrated by pressing the yield curve closer to zero. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year note is now just 17 basis points. Total debt in the U.S. economy stands at $88.3 trillion and GDP is about $24 trillion...
Does a recession call rise to the level of a high-confidence forecast? No, not yet. Hedging one’s bets on the business cycle for the US is, for now, rational. It would be naïve to assume that all is well and that recession risk is destined to remain low for the foresee...
European stocks actually performed better than the NASDAQ last week so maybe it was positive developments in the Ukraine war that spurred the rally. The dollar index fell nearly 1% last week but is still in an uptrend across shorter time frames. What the market does on a week to w...
The U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2018. Scott Colbourne: Market is taking a cue that the Fed is upping the ante and having to move more aggressively on rates. Colbourne: The Fed's will provide more details in May on unwinding the balance sheet...
The Fed funds rate has been increased 25bp, with Federal Reserve officials forecasting six additional hikes this year and the rate peaking at 2.8% next year. Geopolitical tensions create uncertainty, but the Fed feels the need to step on the accelerator. It increases the likelihoo...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...