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The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads starte...
Consider the following claims: The Fed has tightened policy over the past few years. The likely Fed rate cut in July shows that it made a mistake in raising rates last year. The fact that unemployment has fallen to lower levels than anticipated provides further evidence that the Fed er...
June consumption was strong, while production was weak Tuesday morning's retail sales and industrial production releases for June are consistent with my take that the consumer sector of the economy is doing OK, while the production sector remains in trouble. Let's start with retail sales...
Psychology is probably the most important factor in the market, and one that is least understood." - David Dreman The S&P 500 came into the new trading week up 20.2% year to date, which is the biggest gain at this point in the year since 1998. A calendar year that was part of the l...
Manufacturing growth has historically been the "canary in the coal mine" for economic trends. The question is what a dead canary means today - because manufacturing is flirting with contraction. One reason to question manufacturing's canary role is that its contribution to GDP has declined...
Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They also are an excellent way to "mark ...
China's economic growth decelerates to the slowest pace in nearly three decades. What are the investment implications of a slowdown? And with Brexit uncertainty continuing to hang over the U.K., what do investors need to know? Kim Parlee talks to Bruce Cooper, CEO and CIO at TD Asset Re...
If we look at the full history of financial crises around the world, one could argue that crises related to external debt and/or fixed exchange rates are dominant. Such crises could represent an entire chapter of this book. However, I will only offer a brief overview of the subject. From the p...
Despite structural regional challenges, Russ provides insight on several factors that support European equities. With the S&P 500 up nearly 20% year-to-date, U.S. investors can be forgiven for maintaining a home country bias. Consistent with the post-crisis norm, 2019 is shaping up to ...
A few economic data may be useful for market timing purposes. Retail sales are one of them. Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS) are issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using data of the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. It is usually rel...
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2024-04-25 06:10:00 ET The Vanguard 500 Index ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is one of the most popular ETFs (exchange-traded funds) , and for good reason. Vanguard made a name for itself by offering low-cost index mutual funds and later expanded its popular offerings to ETFs. The nice adva...
2024-04-24 10:15:00 ET Many investors subscribe to the idea of index investing , but figuring out which index fund they should own can leave them somewhat paralyzed. Two common recommendations are the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI) and the Vanguard S&P ...
2024-04-18 19:33:00 ET You might not think it's possible to outperform the average Wall Street professional with just a single investment. Fund managers are highly educated and steeped in market data. They get paid a lot of money to make smart investments. But the truth is, most of them...