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2023-06-06 05:38:00 ET Summary The US economy faces concerns such as Fed tightening, high inflation, tighter bank lending standards, and leading indicators pointing to a potential downturn. The job market remains solid, but some worsening data suggests that its strength may have p...
2023-06-06 04:39:00 ET Summary The Fed may not raise rates in July, as inflation is expected to continue to decline. Housing prices have been falling for the past 18 months, which will lead to negative Owner's Equivalent Rent component of the CPI in the coming months. The econ...
2023-06-05 19:35:00 ET Summary The US may be adding jobs in huge numbers, but the key ISM business surveys cast serious doubt on how long this can last. The manufacturing ISM index is already indicating recession and the service sector will soon join it unless order books turn aro...
2023-06-05 08:07:19 ET Summary A new 2023/24 study continues the trading studies from 2017 testing abnormal Russell Index reconstitution returns from scholarly literature. Since 2017 the best return results from a Russell anomaly test generated +57.90% in the first six months and ...
2023-06-02 22:30:00 ET Summary The service sector has historically kept the US economy afloat during manufacturing contractions, allowing for a "soft landing" scenario. The monetary conditions index suggests economic growth will pick up later this year, which could explain the sto...
2023-06-02 03:05:00 ET Summary Recessions are generally associated with lousy labor markets. Unlike many other countries, the US official (NBER) definition of recession does not involve two negative quarters, but lots of people wrongly believe it does. It will be interesting t...
2023-05-24 10:45:00 ET Summary Rarely in the history of US economic analysis have recession forecasts been so plentiful and widely embraced. This week’s issue of the newsletter sent to subscribers continues to report a firmer reading of economic activity for the immediate f...
2023-05-22 10:30:00 ET Summary We’ve seen this movie before... gold did ok, but what about stocks? The last time we saw this preference for gold was 10 years ago. Why? Waiting for the last shoe to drop is not a recipe for market success. Markets are forward-loo...
2023-05-20 07:00:00 ET Summary In the US, recent growth has been positive, the labor market has been resilient, and inflation appears to have peaked. Despite current rosy macro data, many forecasters see two clouds on the horizon: recession and inflation. Acknowledging the goo...
2023-05-19 02:45:00 ET Summary Banks have been tightening their lending standards, and they plan to keep doing it throughout the rest of the year. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Lending Practices found that bankers expect a deteriorating economic picture in 2023, both f...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...