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2023-10-16 23:40:00 ET Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve has undertaken aggressive interest rate hikes in a bid to bring inflation back down to its target. In late 2022, many forecasters were warning of elevated recession risks in the near-term outlook (approximately 12-18 months a...
2023-10-16 20:00:00 ET Summary The economically-sensitive Russell 2000 stock index (RUT) has given back all of its early 2023 rebound and is now negative year to date. The US small-cap 600 index (SP600) is 20% lower than its November 1, 2021 cycle peak and 2.8% higher than five ye...
2023-10-16 09:00:15 ET Summary Small caps have struggled due to high interest rates and weak fundamentals. They have continued to suffer from underperformance against the S&P 500. The Russell 2000 is relatively well-diversified. However, most companies in the index aren't asse...
2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...
2023-10-13 04:00:00 ET Summary In the US economy, there’s been quite a bit of optimistic chatter focused on this idea of a soft landing. When you think about investing and mountain climbing, they’re both judged by the ability to move higher. Dividend growers tend...
2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...
2023-10-11 10:15:00 ET Summary Inflationary pressures will likely be higher going forward than they’ve been over the past two decades. Higher real interest rates are necessary in such an environment to keep inflation at target. Higher real interest rates put pressure on bot...
2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...
2023-10-10 01:03:00 ET Summary It’s hard to blame the bulls for their good cheer of late. Spiking inflation no longer dominates the headlines even as the U.S. economy has rebounded toward its long-term trend. Meanwhile, the labor market has started to ease (perhaps reducing...
2023-10-06 22:17:00 ET Summary The window of weakness for stocks is closing, could this presage of a blow-off top to close out the year? The risk for stocks could again be to the upside. A constructive correction in crude oil. One: The window of weakness is closing...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...