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2023-10-31 14:50:00 ET Summary Since July, the probability of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months has declined. However, the U.S. treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of recession remains elevated. The Recession Probability Track indicates...
2023-10-27 07:45:00 ET Summary Following the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated its higher for longer mantra and upgraded its economic forecast to include a no recession scenario. If the average delay between the final rate increase and recession is 11 months, ...
2023-10-27 00:52:00 ET Summary The expectation that interest rates will remain at high levels for longer than anticipated is leading equity managers across the globe to favor companies with strong balance sheets. Conversely, managers are more cautious on companies reliant on loans or ...
2023-10-26 06:30:00 ET Summary In addition to steering clear of losers, small-cap investors have to demonstrate the "positive art" of finding winners. By achieving that equilibrium and, importantly, selecting a smaller subset of very big winners, small-cap investors stand the best...
2023-10-24 08:59:33 ET More on Small Caps IWM Small Caps: New 52-Week Low, Everything Is Not Fine IWM: Small Caps Are Back In The Danger Zone Small Caps Leading Lower For further details see: Small caps struggle with the Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap ...
2023-10-20 04:30:00 ET Summary Rising inflation precedes recessions, and monetary policy actions are pro-cyclical rather than counter-cyclical. The combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion has resulted in negative net national saving, which will impair economic growth...
2023-10-19 23:00:00 ET Summary U.S. equities have ruled the roost for the better part of the last decade, but another region may emerge as the leader if the business cycle changes. The decision to allocate investments between the U.S. and international markets is not a binary choi...
2023-10-19 10:30:00 ET Summary While the US economy has been resilient this year, the lagged effects of tightening are likely still to come. Inflation expectations, credit spreads, corporate credit, employment, and housing aren’t in recession territory. The yield curve,...
2023-10-18 20:55:00 ET Summary With all the attention given to the recent surge in Treasury (UST) yields, there has been an interesting by-product in the process: steepening yield curves. Remember when inverted yield curves were all the rage, and their historical track record was ...
2023-10-16 23:40:00 ET Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve has undertaken aggressive interest rate hikes in a bid to bring inflation back down to its target. In late 2022, many forecasters were warning of elevated recession risks in the near-term outlook (approximately 12-18 months a...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...