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2023-11-21 20:30:00 ET Summary There was a government-spending-fuelled burst of economic activity in the US during the third quarter of this year that led to a high GDP growth number being reported for the quarter. Continuous Claims bottomed in September 2022, moved higher into Ap...
2023-11-14 15:12:00 ET Summary U.S. real personal consumption has held up well in the face of higher interest rates because jobs kept growing. Inflation has receded in virtually every category, although shelter is coming down more slowly due to the confusing and lagged calculation...
2023-11-14 06:51:00 ET Summary In the context of fighting inflation, the “final mile” represents the successful and sustainable achievement of a central bank’s inflation target. Perhaps the biggest surprise in macroeconomics this year has been the resilience o...
2023-11-13 21:30:00 ET Summary We have entered the seasonally strongest part of the year – as November and December historically tend to be up months, when the stock market acts a lot better. The S&P 500 Index and its more volatile cousin, the Nasdaq 100, are both now o...
2023-11-07 21:35:00 ET Summary The third quarter GDP report surprised most economists with a blowout 4.9% gain. Is a downside reversal brewing for Q4? Early estimates for the final months of 2023 point to a substantially softer pace of economic activity. It’s premature ...
2023-11-06 13:27:32 ET Summary Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF has underperformed mid-cap and large-cap peers during market turmoil. VTWO's fund price is more volatile than its mid-cap and large-cap peers due to the characteristics of small-cap stocks. While VTWO's valuation appears...
2023-11-03 16:04:00 ET Summary Despite substantially tighter monetary policy, the strength of jobs and retail sales stumped expectations of a recessionary downturn in 2022. Current real-time economic data suggests the economy is rapidly moving from economic slowdown toward recessi...
2023-11-02 21:00:00 ET Summary Due to rapid government spending, inventory building by the private sector and about $500B coming out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility, US ‘real’ GDP grew at an annualised rate of almost 5% in Q3-2023. It has been known for a f...
2023-10-31 23:35:00 ET Summary The most notable of these was in S&P 500 futures. Whereas this past summer saw positioning shift to the most net short levels in over a decade. The small-cap Russell 2000 still remains deep in net short territory, although there was some improvem...
2023-10-31 14:50:00 ET Summary Since July, the probability of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months has declined. However, the U.S. treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of recession remains elevated. The Recession Probability Track indicates...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...