AI boom lifts U.S. growth, but rising tail risks cloud outlook, Apollo's Slok says

2026-02-24 11:06:07 ET

The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, buoyed in part by a growing contribution from artificial intelligence-related investment, but risks of a sharp downturn have climbed, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist Torsten Slok said....

Slok estimates so-called tail risks—low-probability, high-impact events—have risen to 30% from 10%, even as baseline growth remains solid. Potential triggers for a sudden shift include geopolitical shocks, mounting government debt, or an abrupt move higher or lower in interest rates.

A key uncertainty is the trajectory of AI adoption and its productivity payoff. Recent data show AI-linked spending, including software and information processing equipment, is contributing an increasing share to U.S. GDP growth. That has helped sustain momentum despite tighter financial conditions.

However, Slok cautioned that elevated expectations around AI create vulnerability. If investment fails to translate into anticipated productivity gains, recession probabilities could rise. Conversely, if rapid automation were to spark a sharp increase in unemployment, the economic and market impact could be disruptive.

“We remain constructive on the U.S. outlook,” Slok said, but added that investors should monitor tail risks more closely, as the likelihood of a sudden shift in sentiment is increasing.

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