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This year highlights the titanic struggle between the two monsters ruling interest rates markets: carry and volatility. The latter has driven rates over the past few weeks, but the respite could mean a sharper adjustment higher in rates and volatility down the line. There is poten...
One weak US payrolls number does not change the big picture, and one big inflation print tomorrow will likely not also. It will confirm a big rise in prices in the past year though. That's a clear outcome, but the Fed needs more - a string of them. This is a bond market that has i...
Although large negative real yields have become the norm in core Europe, they were less common in the US. Covid-19 changed that. The re-opening should change that back, but so far it hasn't. A big payrolls report followed by a near-4% inflation number next week should tip the balance....
Global manufacturing output growth hits 11-year high, but record supply delays lead to production constraints. Backlogs of work rise at steepest rate for 17 years. Input costs rise at fastest rate for decade, lead to record factory gate price increase. For further details se...
US and UK lead global expansion as eurozone and Japan lag. Virus restrictions, vaccine rollouts, business sentiment and stimulus drive service sector divergences. Manufacturing rises across the board, but worsening supply disruptions hint at rising price pressures. For furth...
Flash Eurozone PMI at second-highest since September 2018, future expectations at new all-time high. Record expansion of manufacturing output accompanied by return to growth in services. Jobs growth highest since November 2018. Input cost inflation at decade high. PMI data...
Leading indicators but also hard data signal a developing manufacturing sector boom while the government prepares the strictest lockdown to date in order to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed by the third COVID-19 wave. The dichotomy between manufacturing and service...
The Bank of Japan has implemented strict yield curve control in the 2-10-year area of the JGB curve since 2016, in an attempt to prevent financial conditions from tightening and to boost Japanese inflation to 2%. Other government yield curves, where central banks have not targeted any...
Strong global manufacturing production reported in March, but growth stymied by supply constraints. Rising backlogs of work hint at further robust expansion in second quarter. But inflation concerns are fanned by record rise in factory gate prices. For further details see: ...
Once again, the German Constitutional Court is at the root cause of potential market tension. Last Friday, the European flagship project demonstrating solidarity took a severe hit. The decision could be another episode in the long saga of how the German Constitutional Court is (tr...