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Before the supply-constrained economy that emerged after Covid, and the war in Ukraine, attempts of a sustained rise in global short-term interest rates had to contend with the fact that at least two major central banks, the ECB and the BOJ were stuck in the mud at the zero bound. Now...
The market recognizes a strong consensus has emerged at the FOMC for 50 bp hikes in June, but the unexpectedly strong CPI report before the weekend saw the market price in about a 50% chance of a 75 bp hike in July. In May, the FOMC statement acknowledged the contraction in Q1 GDP but...
The latest PMI data compiled for JPMorgan by S&P Global revealed an unwelcome mix of sluggish global economic growth and soaring business costs in May. Although global output growth picked up slightly in May, it remained at one of the weakest levels seen so far in the pandemic rec...
A strong nonfarm payroll report means that the Fed won’t be pausing their interest rate hiking campaign anytime soon. The May employment report was impressive, but it will likely be the last strong one we will see in a while. The upcoming week is filled with important centr...
U.S. investors can capitalize on the current and implied future interest rate differential between the US and MSCI EAFE countries by hedging their foreign currency exposure. The dollar may weaken by more than the interest rate differential over the lifetime of the hedging program. ...
After years of supporting corporate credit, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are set to reverse course, just as global growth begins to slow. While the loss of support will be felt in both markets, the differences in program structure and portfolio composition will have d...
Central banks are facing a growth-inflation trade-off. Hiking interest rates too much risks triggering a recession, while not tightening enough risks causing runaway inflation. The Fed has made it clear it is ready to dampen growth. Implication: We are neutral developed market (DM) equiti...
Price pressures intensified on average, thanks in part to higher energy prices. While the China impact was most commonly reported in Japan, the Ukraine war impact was most heavily felt in the eurozone. For all economies, the path of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis remains ...
The economic news emanating from Britain and the European Union is continuing to come in weak, as many European countries are expected to slip into a recession this year. While inflation may be ebbing in China and the U.S., inflation is still accelerating in Britain and the rest of Eu...
It’s been another turbulent week in financial markets and there’s nothing to suggest it’s going to ease up any time soon. This week we may have got a clue as markets went into risk-averse mode and the dollar slipped while yields declined and gold rallied. Are rece...