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The UK economy surprised in May with robust growth following three months of stagnation, but that reading was distorted by holiday dates. The Conservative Party had promised a reduction in taxes, but that measure will likely have to await the election of a new leader and prime ministe...
Investors as a group are as pessimistic and afraid as they've been for a long time. The first thing we need to do is work out what the FTSE 250's fair value actually is, because fair value, also known as intrinsic or investment value, is the single most important number in investing. ...
June had seen global employment growth generally holding up well, with many firms continuing to rebuild workforces that had been affected by the pandemic. Key to the price outlook will be the supply situation. Like the US and eurozone, the UK is seeing a natural moderation of grow...
Two opposing forces appear to be dominating the market currently, with investors polarized between recession fears and bargain hunting following this year’s large equity selloff. Investors priced in most central bank tightening and seem more confident with the inflation outlook...
The US and eurozone June composite PMI had nearly converged at 52.3 and 52.0, respectively. The BOJ saw the economy expanding 2.9% this year and slowing to 1.9% next and 1.1% in 2024. In June, the ECB raised the TLTRO rate to its deposit rate (-0.50%), and banks repaid almost 75 b...
After spending many years as an unloved also-ran, the FTSE 100 is finally getting its moment in the spotlight. While the index's price has gone nowhere, the amount of capital employed by the 100 companies that make up the index and the earnings and dividends they generate, have more t...
Boris Johnson has resigned as prime minister of the UK, which probably comes as not a huge surprise to most people, given he’s been under pressure for quite some time. The fiscal room will be quite limited to allow tax cuts. So even though many may talk about cutting taxes, I t...
We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...
Last month, when the Federal Reserve hiked 75 bp instead of the 50 it had signaled, Chair Powell cited the unexpectedly strong CPI and elevated University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations. While inflation did accelerate, the core rate fell. Moreover, the Fed targets the PCE...
It will be a busy week for Fed speak as Williams talks about LIBOR on Monday, Barkin discusses recession on Tuesday, Waller speaks on Thursday and Bostic talks on Friday. Energy traders will have a lot to keep their eye on next week as President Biden makes a trip to the Middle East a...