ITE News and Press, SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Term Treasury From 09/18/19

By Eric Winograd With the global economy facing stronger headwinds, we've reduced our global growth and interest rate expectations . But the US Federal Reserve has a variety of policy tools it could use - some unconventional - that we think will help the US economy hold up better than som...

The purpose of the Turning Points Newsletter is to look at the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicators to determine if the economic trajectory has changed from expansion to contraction -- to determine if the economy has reached a "Turning Point." My recession probabilit...

What's really at stake when an investor lends money at a particular rate of interest is what the rate of inflation will be over the same period of time as the life of the bond. If the investor believes credit growth is drying up and will be very low, then inflation is likely to be low, and i...

The unprecedented attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq crude oil processing facility, the largest in the world, is getting a lot of attention and rightly so. As the single worst supply disruption in the oil markets in history, one would expect a bit of press. There are a few aspects of the e...

With Donald Trump now tweeting for negative interest rates while the precious metals markets are already rallying, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics joined me on the show to talk about how it all fits together. He discussed the latest Trump comments, how that might affect the rec...

Originally published September 9, 2019 In an environment with stable inflation, the yield curve should typically be inverted. Long term investors care about money when they retire, not next month. Most investors are long-term. If inflation is steady, long-term bonds are a safer way t...

There has been quite a lot of movement in yields since last month, so I thought it would be useful to look at an update. During the last half of June and July, the long end of the curve came down while the short end moved up a little bit. I wish we had an NGDP futures market to check these i...

"There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen." - Lenin For the past few weeks we have fielded more than the usual number of calls from clients as they saw the Dow Jones rise and fall by hundreds of points at a clip. We gave them reassurance that we were on...

Here are the monthly inflation updates. It will be interesting to see if the Fed treats 2% as a symmetrical target or a ceiling. There might be an argument for treating it as a ceiling at this point in the business cycle, because employment is so strong. But employment is a lagging indicator....

The first ten of Grant's Rules are "Preservation of Capital" reiterated ten times. The reason for my thinking here is that it is far easier, and more important, to keep your hard earned money rather than make new money. Here is what happens if a stock, or the overall market, declines. Speculat...