Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett assessed the performance and changed several North American oil & gas exploration and production (E&Ps) companies' ratings amid the macro environment.
The analyst continues to expect the E&P of hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and coal) to remain a strong industry for several decades. In particular, the analyst projects oil-focused E&Ps to achieve higher average prices through the cycle but continues to face the cycle nonetheless.
Brackett updated forecasts by marking 2023 crude prices to market at $80/bbl and implemented the updated international gas price deck, which places TTF at $15/mmbtu in 2025.
Brackett maintained an Outperform rating on both Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and raised the price target to $189 (from $185) and $143 (from $139), respectively. He sees these companies performing well despite falling oil prices.
HES: The analyst cites HES' ~30% working interest in the high-quality Stabroek block offshore Guyana and partnership with other major oil companies as driving factors for volume and cash flow. The analyst expects HES to return about half its current market cap through dividends and buybacks through 2030.
Brackett estimates adjusted EPS of $5.99 (vs. $7.29 prior) in FY23 and $11.86 (vs. $12.11 earlier) in FY24.
COP: ...