The following is an update to the first quarter 2024 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the first quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual first quarter 2024 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on May 2, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
Integrated Gas
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 960 - 1,000 | |
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.2 - 7.6 | |
Underlying opex | 1.0 - 1.2 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
Taxation charge | 0.7 - 1.0 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be strong, but significantly lower than an exceptional Q4'23. |
Upstream
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 1,820 - 1,920 | |
Underlying opex | 2.3 - 2.8 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 2.7 - 3.1 | |
Taxation charge | 2.1 - 2.9 | Q4'23 taxation charge reflected favourable deferred tax movements, not reoccurring in Q1'24. |
Other Considerations: | ||
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q1'24 is expected to be ~$0.5 billion. Q1'24 exploration well-write offs are expected to be ~$0.6 billion, mainly in Albania. |
Marketing
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,150 - 2,550 | |
Underlying opex | 2.0 - 2.4 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.4 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q4'23. |
Chemicals & Products
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Indicative refining margin | $12/bbl | |
Indicative chemicals margin | $151/tonne | Chemicals sub segment losses are expected to be lower than in Q4'23. |
Refinery utilisation | 89% - 93% | |
Chemicals utilisation | 71% - 75% | |
Underlying opex | 2.5 - 2.9 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.8 - 1.0 | |
Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.6 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly higher than Q4'23. |
Renewables and Energy Solutions
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.1) - 0.5 |
Corporate
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) - (0.4) |
Shell Group
$ billions | Q1'24 Outlook | Comment |
CFFO: | ||
Tax paid | 2.3 - 3.1 | |
Derivative movements | (1) - 3 | Derivative movements and working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |
Working capital | (3) - 1 | |
Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
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Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook' contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara Research, is expected to be published on April 25, 2024.
Appendix
Indicative Margins
Q4'23 |