The following is an update to the fourth quarter 2023 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the fourth quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual fourth quarter 2023 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on February 1, 2024. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items.
See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
Integrated Gas
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 880 - 920 | |
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.9 - 7.3 | |
Underlying opex | 1.1 - 1.3 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 1.3 - 1.7 | |
Taxation charge | 0.9 - 1.2 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly higher than Q3'23 due to seasonality and increased optimisation opportunities. |
Upstream
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 1,830 - 1,930 | |
Underlying opex | 2.2 - 2.6 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 2.8 - 3.2 | |
Taxation charge | 1.6 - 2.4 | This includes favourable movements in non-cash deferred tax positions. |
Other Considerations: | ||
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q4'23 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q4'23 exploration well-write offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. |
Marketing
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,350 - 2,750 | |
Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.5 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
Taxation charge | 0.1 - 0.3 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Marketing results are expected to be in line with Q3'23. |
Chemicals & Products
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Indicative refining margin | $10/bbl | |
Indicative chemicals margin | $125/tonne | The Chemicals sub segment adjusted earnings are expected to be around Q4'22 levels. |
Refinery utilisation | 78% - 82% | Reflects planned maintenance activities in North America. |
Chemicals utilisation | 60% - 64% | |
Underlying opex | 2.8 - 3.2 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 - 1.1 | |
Taxation charge / (credit) | (0.6) - (0.2) | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation is expected to be significantly lower than Q3'23. The Chemicals & Products segment is expected to make an Adjusted Earnings loss in Q4'23. |
Renewables and Energy Solutions
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.3) - 0.3 |
Corporate
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) - (0.4) |
Shell Group
$ billions | Q4'23 Outlook | Comment |
CFFO: | ||
Tax Paid | 3.4 - 4.2 | |
Other | (2) - (1) | CFFO excluding working capital expected to include an ~$0.9 billion outflow related to timing of payments of emissions certificates relating to the German BEHG* and US Biofuel programmes. |
Working Capital & Derivative Movements | (3) - 3 | Working Capital and derivative estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. Q4'23 Working Capital movements is expected to include a ~$1.0 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes. |
Other Shell Group Considerations: | ||
Non-cash post tax impairments / (impairment reversals) (These items are reported as ... |