The following is an update to the third quarter 2023 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the third quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual third quarter 2023 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on November 2, 2023. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements exclude identified items. See appendix for previous quarter historical data.
Integrated Gas
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 880 - 920 | Production and LNG liquefaction outlook reflects scheduled maintenance (including Prelude and Trinidad and Tobago). |
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 6.6 - 7.0 | |
Underlying opex | 1.1 - 1.3 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
Taxation charge | 0.7 - 1.0 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation: expected to be higher compared to Q2'23. |
Upstream
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Production (kboe/d) | 1,700 - 1,800 | |
Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.6 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 2.7 - 3.1 | |
Taxation charge | 2.1 - 2.9 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q3'23 is expected to be around zero. Q3'23 exploration well-write offs are expected to be ~$0.2 billion. |
Marketing
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,450 - 2,850 | |
Underlying opex | 2.1 - 2.5 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.3 - 0.7 | |
Taxation charge | 0.2 - 0.4 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Marketing results: expected to be similar to Q3'22. |
Chemicals & Products
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | ||
Indicative refining margin | $16/bbl | |
Indicative chemicals margin | $116/tonne | The chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q2'23. |
Refinery utilisation | 82% - 86% | |
Chemicals utilisation | 68% - 72% | |
Underlying opex | 2.8 - 3.2 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | ||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.8 - 1.0 | |
Taxation charge | 0.0 - 0.5 | |
Other Considerations: | ||
Trading & Optimisation: expected to be higher than Q2'23. |
Renewables and Energy Solutions
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.3) - 0.3 |
Corporate
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.6) - (0.4) |
Shell Group
$ billions | Q3'23 Outlook | Comment |
CFFO: | ||
Tax Paid | 2.7 - 3.5 | |
Working Capital | (4) - 0 | Working capital estimations inherently have a broad range of uncertainty. |