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Summary The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 133 trading days, currently at a negative 79 basis points. This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%. This weekȁ...
Summary PIMCO's dynamic income fund outperformed stocks in 2022, with a mere -15.55% price decline. It has a 13.88% yield today. Bonds tend to perform well after periods of rising interest rates, provided that most of the interest rate hiking is done. It will only take one or tw...
Summary Except for the higher probability of a recession occurring this year, market conditions are more or less the same as in 2022, when Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1x Shares ETF delivered gains of nearly 18%. Thus, this ETF becomes attractive in 2023 for shorting the S&P 500 ...
Even though the S&P 500 dropped in December, equity funds scored gains on average for Q4 as a whole, thanks to gains posted over October and November. This marked their first quarterly advances in four quarters. During Q4, equity funds climbed 8.7% on average. Still, even with this advanc...
Summary The yield to maturity on the BND's holdings has risen from 3.0% to 4.6% since I last covered the ETF in March 2022. Despite yields rising, long-term inflation expectations have fallen sharply. As a result, the real yield on offer is now almost 2.4% versus zero last year. The...
Summary Managed Futures posted gains in each of the first three quarters before taking a breather in the 4th quarter. Commodities shot out of the gate huge in Q1 before oscillating back and forth the rest of the year. December looked a lot like the rest of the year for the rest of t...
Summary The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. GMI represents a theoretical benchmark of the optimal portfolio for the average investor with an infinite time h...
Summary IEI targets a specific range of the US Treasury yield curve. Specifically, 3-7 year bonds. The Fed's sharp series of interest rate hikes during 2022, and reaction of the bond market to those actions, puts this ETF in a very interesting spot on the curve. Bonds in this maturi...
Summary The recent spike in inflation and a very late response from the Federal Reserve make an update of realized excess returns on Treasury bonds a critical exercise. For realized excess returns, it is still true that it has always been better to hold 10, 20, and 39-year bonds than to...
Summary Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The big winner: broadly defined commodities. Overall, markets suffered far and wide, including losses for US stocks and bonds in the same calendar year. L...
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2024-07-10 03:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-20 05:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-10 06:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...