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The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date. The cost of living shock is big amid negative real wage gains and a freakish jump in shelter expense over the past two years. ...
As of Friday's close, the probability of an inverted Treasury yield curve peaks at 50.9%, up from 48.9% last week, in the 91-day quarterly period ending December 23, 2022. The probability of negative rates starts near zero but then rises steadily to peak at 12.3%, down from 13.8% last...
We calculate the probability of an inverted yield curve, negative rates, and the distribution of US Treasury yields 10 years forward. The probability of an inverted yield curve is sharply higher after the jump in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate from 5 to 30 basis points this week...
Historical analysis shows that value exposures have tended to outperform in a rising yield environment as it coincides with rising inflation. In a rising rate environment, traditional bonds can lose value, but investors should not write off fixed income exposure altogether. Exposu...
Using a 500,000 scenario simulation of US Treasury yield curves, we show there is a 31.4% probability of inverted yields by year-end 2022. The peak probability of negative 3-month Treasury bills is 14.2% in May 2026. This week’s simulation shows that the most li...
Corporate high-yield is outperforming the corporate high-grade index. One unusual aspect to the 2022 stock market selloff is that the Treasury trade hasn't happened. The psychological impact of crude oil and gasoline prices may be a bigger factor in the stock market sentiment data...
At the height of the pandemic, the Fed pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system through asset purchases to support markets and the broader economy. The Fed has several options for unwinding its portfolio. While we think investors will hear a lot about the Fed balance ...
Over the last two centuries, at least 23 ships are recorded as having been sunk by icebergs, while many more have sustained damage. Over the years, while ships have grown larger, so have icebergs. The largest iceberg in the world, at about 80 times the size of Manhattan, broke off the...
Russian debt, both hard currency and local currency, is largely shut down for trading. Prices for Russian government securities are pricing in a default scenario. The markets have dramatically repriced central bank expectations. For further details see: Russia Sanctions ...
Russia-Ukraine crisis: What's Putin's next move? A full regime change in Ukraine may be tougher than Putin thinks. Bond market surprise: Why didn't long bonds react to Russian attack? For further details see: Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What's Putin's Next Move?
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2024-02-18 19:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-11-26 04:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Oct. 28, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PIMCO, one of the world’s premier fixed income investment managers, has announced its intent to transfer the exchange listing of its actively managed exchange-traded fund, PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (BOND), to the N...