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2023-05-09 03:30:00 ET Summary The global equity rally that began last October made further headway in April. Growth stocks were hurt by Q1 earnings disappointments, while financials got a lift from stronger-than-expected quarterly results and waning worries about the global banki...
2023-04-20 13:09:00 ET Summary We see that the 10s/2s has been inverted since roughly July 2022, while the 10s/3mo (historically the more accurate indicator of recessions) inverted in October. The consensus is that 2023 will witness a decline in corporate earnings as economic acti...
2023-04-12 00:08:00 ET Summary A negative US 10-year minus 3-month yield spread has signalled every incoming recession of the last 60 years. In the real world, global PC shipments were -29% year over year in the first quarter, and the average work week in March’s payroll re...
2023-03-18 02:14:07 ET Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Several important coincident indicators - tax withholding and temporary staf...
2023-03-18 01:20:49 ET Summary The recent weakness in the banking system demonstrates just how fragile it is. We have yet to see the full impact of higher interest rates in the economy, but earnings have already started to decline. The market's earnings expectations for the S&...
2023-03-15 23:05:00 ET Summary After more than 12 long years, the stage may finally be set for an extended upswing in small-caps. When leadership concentration broke down in previous cycles, we saw multiyear periods where small caps outperformed large caps. In the current cycl...
2023-03-11 02:24:27 ET Summary The Fed “pivot” which is “higher for longer” and the implications. We believe that the Fed is well aware of the need for a continued hiking process and therefore staying “higher for longer”. Volatility mo...
2023-03-08 08:49:00 ET Summary Stocks, bonds and key commodity prices broadly fell in February as investors revised up expectations for policy rate peaks amid surprisingly resilient inflation and global economic data. Of the four largest emerging markets, only Taiwan continued to ...
Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research takes time to define periods of economic expansion and contraction - and they do so in hindsight; equity markets are not trading based on these characterizations. The low degree of difference between the S&P 500 Index and the WisdomTr...
Summary When the market peaked in January 2022, everyone was exceedingly bullish, and no one was looking for a 20% decline. Retail investors have sharply increased their equity allocations over the last couple of months, dropping their cash holdings sharply. From a contrarian viewpo...