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By Antoine Bouvet, Senior Rates Strategist Gyrations in government bond markets in recent days have caught investors’ attention. We recap the drivers behind the reversal in interest rates and attempt to pin a fair value tail on the Bund donkey. We see higher yields as a distinc...
Investment thesis: The global equity markets - like their US counterparts - sold off sharply last week. Make no new moves into international markets. The Bank of England cut rates 50 basis points and provided additional stimulus (emphasis added): At its special meeting ending on 10 ...
By Katrina Dudley, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Franklin Mutual Series Although European equities performed well in 2019, there’s still a significant value and performance gap compared to US stocks, according to Franklin Mutual Series Portfolio Manager Katrina Dudley. Here, she gives r...
Overview The spread of the coronavirus and the lockdown in the epicenter in China has again sapped the risk-taking appetite in the capital markets. Asia is bearing the brunt of the adjustment. Tomorrow starts China's week-long Lunar New Year celebration when markets will be closed, which may...
This was a somewhat light week of international news. There were, however, three regions that issued some key data. Chinese GDP increased by 6.1% in the latest quarter. This continues the moderating trend that we've seen in China for the last few years. The same report noted that indus...
In the past cycle, many practitioners have questioned the ability of the ECB to raise inflation. Figure 1 (left frame) shows that the market-implied measure of inflation expectations, the 5Y5Y inflation swap, has constantly been declining in the past cycle and is currently sitting at 1.3%, far...
Three eurozone economic numbers No one's all that surprised that growth isn't wondrous and roaring in the eurozone. It hasn't been for years, and no one can think of any reason why it should suddenly have become so. However, it's running worse than we'd generally expected, and there's nothin...
A Weak Eurozone Economy The European Commission's recently updated eurozone growth forecasts point to weak growth - especially in big manufacturing countries such as Germany and Italy - for 2020 and 2021. As a whole, the eurozone is projected to grow only 1.1% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020 - ha...
It's looking like a eurozone recession We should distinguish between recession - two quarters of falling output - and technical recession - a recorded fall in output. The eurozone as a whole - not just German industrial production - looks like it will meet that second definition in the near ...
As I stare across the Pond, I am troubled by what I see. In my opinion, the situation in the EU is deteriorating. The governments there, of course, will tell you that everything is just fine and it is all a case of some minor squabbles. I am not buying this concept and I am becoming increasing...